Can We Really Afford to Lose?

Nothing excites more passion or disdain than the seemingly never ending debate over the war in Iraq. I write this article knowing that most people will stop reading at this point, because of the sense of frustration over this emotional and draining issue. I would encourage you to read on before you use this article to line your birdcage.

Much of today’s debate on Iraq misses the point. Every day countless politicians and pundits debate the issue. I use the word debate but regurgitate might be a better description. Over and over, we hear how we should have not invaded Iraq, Bush lied, there were no weapons of mass destruction and most importantly, Iraq had nothing to do with Al Qaeda and 9-11. I would submit to you that all of these arguments are irrelevant to today’s debate on what America should do in Iraq – going forward. Going forward is the critical issue; make that the paramount issue that we need to use to frame the debate.

The politicians and pundits are looking at the issue from a political or historical viewpoint. Neither of these is relevant. We must focus on the future. Let the historians write about the past. The central question is what happens if America withdraws? How does the United States of America benefit from this outcome? Let’s look at the facts.

The fledgling Iraqi government has been a failure. The only thing preventing an outright civil war among the Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds is the overwhelming presence of the US military. I say overwhelming because in small numbers the US military would not be a deterrent, just a target. All we have to do is remember Somalia when the war lords killed a small contingent of American soldiers and drug their bodies around the city. We did not have adequate resources to protect ourselves much less bring order to the city. We withdrew and chaos ensues to the present. The mere fact that we are American’s will not deter the terrorists. Overwhelming military force will.

If we withdraw, Iran will fill the void. Don’t take my word for it. Just like Hitler, Ahmadinejad (Iran’s president) publicly states his intentions and defies the world to do anything about it. In a recent speech he stated “Iran is ready to fill the vacuum in Iraq, when the US leaves”. He says he will do it. He will do it. If Iran, the world’s largest sponsor of terrorism and on the verge of obtaining the nuclear bomb, gains control over Iraq, Ahmadinejad will have 20% of the world’s oil capacity. A region unified under the control of Iran would be catastrophic to the US and the entire world. We must not let that happen.

If the US withdraws, every terrorist in the world will know they can defeat the US just by outlasting us. The Islamic jihadists are in a long term struggle to dominate the entire world. What is a 4-5 year skirmish with the US in light of global conversion to Islam and Sharia law? That is what they are fighting for. Do you really think the jihadists will stop if we withdraw?

Now comes the tough part. I could go on and on of all of the negative outcomes that would follow a retreat. They are real and certain. They won’t go away just because we are emotionally drained and tired of fighting this war.

The only positive outcome to a withdrawal is the most emotional one of all. We would save a handful of American lives. Each and every soldier’s life is precious and invaluable. However, left unchecked, the terrorists now concentrated in Iraq could unleash another 9-11 and claim thousands of lives in a single instant. Let’s put this into perspective. In the 4 plus years of the war we have lost 3,770 patriotic soldiers. On 9-11, we lost 2,974 fellow Americans in 2 hours.

Given the dire consequences of defeat, our only answer may be a long and protracted military engagement in Iraq, which will result in an agonizing slow trickle of American military casualties. However, given the certainty of the disastrous outcomes that would derive from a withdrawal, this is our only option.

The debate must be logical and reasoned and forward looking. The consequences of failure are enormous. They won’t just go away because we are tired of facing them. Unfortunately, for many in Congress, they see the debate as a way to score political points rather defeating Islamic terror.

I am afraid we have no alternative but to stay and provide a bulwark between the jihadists of Iran and al Qaeda and the American people. The prospect of a long protracted engagement is daunting. However, what is the alternative? Again and again, the only relevant question is how would America benefit in the long-term from a premature withdrawal?

1970 Marbles